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snow coming: quick look

By ccrossen | October 27, 2014

After some dustings this October, including a couple of inches+ up high this past weekend, it looks like we have a Halloween system brewing… models are still vacillating, but we have precip and cold temps in store. Snow levels should be around 4,500-5,000. Initial model runs were forecasting for 10+ inches - now that doesn’t look likely. Rain/snow Friday night and snow Sat. morning as the front passes through. More details as they emerge. Definitely the potential for some poking around Sat/Sun. From NWS Reno discussion:


THEN FOR FRIDAY, THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH FOR LATE OCTOBER AND ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN THE DETAILS. THEY DO SHOW A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A SPLIT AND SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL AS BEING A LITTLE FASTER. IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY MAKING IT A POTENTIALLY WET, WINDY AND SNOWY HALLOWEEN FOR ANY GOBLINS OUT AND ABOUT.


WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, BUT DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS OR THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS WITH GUSTS PERHAPS TO 45 MPH. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TAP, BUT IT WILL HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO WORK WITH AS FORCING IS STRONG ALONG THE FRONT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO 5000 POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START AROUND 7000-7500 FEET AS ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP NOW APPEARS TO BE ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER AIR. THEY THEN LOOK TO FALL TO 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR SPILLOVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA, THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT ISN`T THE MOST FAVORABLE, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD IS LIKELY.


FOR THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY WILL BE COOL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL UNSTABLE AIR AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING. IF SKIES CLEAR, SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH 20S IN MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND TEENS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN, BUT ANY WARM-UP WILL BE SLOW UNDER NORTH FLOW ALOFT. WALLMANN

Topics: Introduction | No Comments

thunder and el nino

By ccrossen | July 23, 2014

Some excellent reading over at The California Weather Blog, Weather West as we dry out from the last couple weeks of unusual rain and thunderstorms that have hit the Sierra.


The primary reason for all of this active weather throughout the West in recent days is the seasonal reversal of large-scale wind patterns associated with the North American Monsoon. This reversal occurs every summer, and is typically associated with occasional convective activity (often in the form of thunderstorms) over mountain and interior regions of the Southwest. Occasionally, this pattern can expand northward and westward to include California in the region of deep southeasterly flow around the characteristic mid-atmospheric high pressure area centered near the Four Corners region. Due to the stabilizing influence of the cool Pacific Ocean near the coast of California, convective activity associated with the monsoon is typically confined to mountain and desert regions, and thus tends to stay away from California’s major population centers. This gives rise to the perception that it never rains in California during the summer months (which is, indeed, a rather accurate characterization if one lives in the coastal metro regions or in the Central Valley).



As for El Nino, we are still on track for some type of event, with NOAA reporting they expect an 80% chance of one occurring this coming winter. However, with relatively modest El Nino’s, the affect really is uncertain, as only the truly most powerful ones create huge winter/precip for the Sierra.


From the California Weather Blog, Weather West, “The quick summary version: connections between California precipitation and El Niño are rather tenuous, except for very strong El Nino events, which are associated with increased cool-season precipitation. This is especially true for inland regions of Northern California, where the majority of California’s reservoirs and “snowpack stored water” capacity resides. While there were some early indications during spring 2013 that the upcoming likely El Niño event could be a very strong event, a top-tier event now appears less likely.”


More great reading this season’s El Nino and drought:
http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1594

Topics: Introduction | No Comments

By ccrossen | April 28, 2014

 sbowl_02_sml2.jpg


excellent weekend of winter in tahoe. a lot of snow Fri-Sat, with 24+” up along the Crest. Skied very very well, but has changed quickly with no real wind on Saturday, warm temps, and then cold winter temps on Sunday. There are pockets out there that will ski great, just have to poke around. And now we wait for the corn cycle to take hold and we’re into the final month or two of spring skiing. We have warm daytime temps all week, though nighttime temps struggle to really get down there into a hard freeze. Keep an eye on Shasta, Lassen, East Side etc. as they are primed to go…

sbowl_03_sml.jpg

Topics: Skiing | No Comments

bonus

By ccrossen | April 25, 2014

Coming in strong! System and front came in colder than expected. 12+” up high along the Crest by noon today, and it is still dumping, another 4-6 this afternoon and 2-4 tonight. Skiing is great, fairly cold, not too wind affected… very nice skiing … temps remain cold through the weekend.

Topics: Tahoe Snow Report | No Comments

last round of winter…?

By ccrossen | April 24, 2014

Late season system due in this evening through Friday night …. up high the base is great, so we should be into another little pow cycle here. Temps warm up beginning of next week, so get after it while you can.

324 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET…
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET AND UP TO 4 INCHES DOWN TO 4500 FEET.
* TIMING: SNOW BEGINS ABOVE 7000 FEET TONIGHT BEFORE IMPACTING AREAS DOWN TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LASSEN NATIONAL PARK…BLUE CANYON…DONNER PASS…ECHO SUMMIT…CARSON PASS.
* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER REMOTE RIDGES.
* IMPACTS: GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE PERIODS OF LATE SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING ON ROADS AT PASS LEVEL LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BLOWING SNOW NEAR THE SIERRA CREST MAY ALSO LIMIT VISIBILITIES

Topics: Skiing, Tahoe Snow Report | No Comments

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