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incoming storm: on target
By ccrossen | October 9, 2009
Looks like we’re lined up for a fairly significant storm, still on target to begin Monday afternoon and evening, with the bulk of the precip. coming Tuesday through Wednesday evening, lingering through Thursday. Models have snow levels high, but it’s not clear at this point how low/high they will go. 7,000 feet looks to be the lowest snow levels we’ll see, but you never know. Batten down the hatches, as we are going to see a lot of rain/snow. The NWS forecasters continue to enjoy the prospects of this early season storm. Would be great if it was colder, but we’ll take the water.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM RECENT SUPER TYPHOON MELOR IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS HEADING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. NWS COMPUTER MODELS COMBINE THIS MOISTURE WITH A POWERFUL JET STREAM AND DEVELOP A STRONG STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CURRENTLY…PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN IN THE COASTAL RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE EVENT…GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET.
ALL OF THE FORECAST FUN REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NOTHING IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS…
THE LATEST GEFS ENSEMBLE CHARTS SHOW AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW…WITH 500MB HEIGHT AND SURFACE PRESSURE ANOMALIES OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL…OFF THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALIES ARE SHOWN ON JET STREAM… 700MB WIND…AND PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS. THE ZONAL JET STREAM WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING ENERGY INTO THE WEST COAST…INCLUDING REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TYPHOON MELOR WHICH WILL BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CA.
RAIN BEGINS IN THE SIERRA MONDAY EVENING THEN INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AND SPILLS INTO WESTERN NV BY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN VERY HIGH THROUGH THE EVENT ALTHOUGH MAY DROP BELOW 7500 FEET FOR A TIME MONDAY EVENING UNTIL THE AIRMASS MOISTENS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TUE THROUGH WED.
Topics: Tahoe Snow Report |