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double-barreled storm
By ccrossen | February 4, 2010
Two systems on tap for the next few days. Not clear yet how much snow we’re going to get, but it looks like we could get up to two feet on the Crest by Sunday AM if the systems take a favorable Tahoe-track and don’t dig too far south. First system starts up this afternoon into this evening, bringing the first shot of snow to the mountains. Snow levels will be around 5,500-6,000′, dropping to 4,500′ Friday AM as the cold front moves in between the storms. Second system comes in Saturday morning with virtually no let up between systems and lasts into the evening. This storm will be colder and have much higher snow ratios. Again, the Reno and Sacramento NWS offices are forecasting much different scenarios. The Sacramento office has been bullish all week, calling for 1-3 feet. Reno is gradually coming around to a larger snow event, but still not that confident. We shall see; something’s going to fall. Temps look like they’re going to stay cold – highs in the low 30s Sunday and Monday – so the powder should last… Longer-range, it looks like we have the possibility of another shot Tuesday, but there is not much confidence in this system right now. It also looks like we’re going to have another blocking pattern setup for most of next week, though this will graudually break down and open the door for systems lining up in the Pacific. Beginning President’s Day weekend, we could see a return of large storms.
Per Reno NWS:
235 AM PST THU FEB 4 2010
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST IMPULSE IS STARTING TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST AS OF 10Z WITH LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ACROSS NORTHERN CA. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FIRST WAVE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON…BECOMING MORE INTENSE OVERNIGHT. THE WARMER NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS TO 5500-6000 FEET. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWER DUE TO THE WARMER AIR AND SO NOT AS MUCH ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS NEAR ADVISORY AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SIERRA… ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS BACK AROUND 4500 FEET. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF HAVING SNOW FALL THROUGH THE RENO AREA.WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY…ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SIERRA RIDGES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SECOND WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSE BEHIND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE BREAK EXPECTED IN THE SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS LIKELY RESULTING IN BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION. THINK THAT WE WILL END UP NEEDING ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA… THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IF IT DIGS TOO FAR SOUTH…FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE JET…WE COULD BE INTO A SPLITTING SITUATION AND THE AREA COULD END UP SEEING VERY LITTLE PRECIP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO MAKE THAT DETERMINATION.
Per Sacramento NWS:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
432 AM PST THU FEB 4 2010
…WINTER STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND…
A PACIFIC STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND STORM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET NORTH OF REDDING TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE SIERRA NEVADA. UP TO 2 FEET OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BY SATURDAY.
Topics: Tahoe Snow Report |