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rain/snow - splitter moves in
By ccrossen | February 26, 2010
Something’s coming… not exactly clear what yet, but a system is beginning to enter California, with its sites on the Sierra. Question remains how direct the path will be for Tahoe as the system looks like it’s going to split, with precip. favoring the southern Sierra. However, there’s still a lot of disagreement between the models and the forecasts, most notably between Sacramento NWS and Reno NWS, as we’ve seen all year long - though with a splitter system like this evening’s the chance for the West side to get hit much harder than the East side of the Crest is more likely. Look for weather to move in this afternoon, with the brunt of the system hitting this evening into early Saturday AM, with lingering showers through Saturday. Worst-case scenario the storm comes in very warm (snow levels starting at 7,000′ and gradually dropping this evening, and splits, brushing Tahoe and dumping 6-12 inches. But we could get a lot more if details shift favorably.
Longer range looks good as the systems are lining up, with storms on track to enter the region every three days. Next Tues/Wds we expect another system.
Current watches/warnings:
Reno NWS:
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES INLAND AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING ALOFT ARE BRIEFLY FAVORABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE TAHOE BASIN…BUT THE TENDENCY FOR A SPLITTING SYSTEM WITH THE PARENT LOW HEADING FOR SOUTHERN CA DOES NOT TREND TOWARDS SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST. THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM WITH 700 TEMPS AROUND -2 C IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM…WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS LOCATED…WHICH MEANS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7000 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BE HEAVY AND WET WITH LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ABOVE 7000 FEET WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR SNOW AND GUSTY WIND
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
SATURDAY.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON…BECOMING HEAVIEST FROM 5 PM THROUGH AROUND 11 PM PST THIS EVENING.
* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. BELOW 7000 FEET…2 TO 6 INCHES.
Sacramento NWS:
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY…
* TIMING: RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY LATE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 6000 FEET WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND TO AROUND 4500 FEET SATURDAY.HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* MAIN IMPACT: PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 TO 70 MPH WILL CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER ALL MOUNTAIN PASSES. TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET…WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES FROM 5000 TO 5500 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL DOWN TO 4500 FEET ON SATURDAY.
Topics: Tahoe Snow Report |