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winter 2010-2011: la nina prognosis

By ccrossen | August 20, 2010

With the full-heat of August upon us, the evenings are turning cooler, hinting that fall and snow is not far away. The early-season winter forecasts are coming in, and the look good: La Nina?!?While it’s not exactly clear how we will fare, in general it will be colder than normal, with possibly less (maybe more) snow than normal, but it’s not a given by any means. The big snow tends to hit North and into the Northern Rockies. For some interesting statistical analysis, check out Tony Crocker’s site, which looks at correlations and which ski areas are the most sensitive (insensitive) to La Nina’s and El Nino’s.

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Simply looking at total snowfall for Tahoe during the La Nina’s, we see a slightly above average season (based on the past 40 years of data, 408 inches vs. 382 inches. The last few La Nina’s have been favorable however, 07/08: 420 inches, 00/01: 335 inches, 98/99: 515 inches. La Nina’s also include the truly epic winter of 2005-2006, 650 inches, though this was a weak La Nina year. The 1970 La Nina’s produced some truly horrible years during La Nina, including the infamous 1975-1976 season. Read more below for additional thoughts and analysis, esp. regarding La Nina coming off an El Nino.La Nina conditions are taking hold and are growing stronger over the summer.

NOAA’s La Nina site.

From TWD:
Right now my analog years are 55-56, 73-74, & 88-89. Those were the last 3 strong La Nina’s that were as strong as this one is forcasted to be by December. The first 2 were during the cold PDO cycle like we are in now. The latter 2 came off of strong El Nino years like this year. 55-56 was not after a strong El Nino year but it was at the beginning of the last cold PDO cycle, about where we are now. All three of these winters were above average snowfall for Donner Summit, anywhere from 50-150 inches above average. It is also going to be a cold winter so what does fall should stick around a while. These 3 years were also big snowpack years.

Sheckter
:LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EQUATORIAL EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC.

IT HAS BEEN A COLDER THAN NORMAL SUMMER FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF CALIFORNIA STRICTLY BECAUSE OF THE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE PERSISTENT TROFING OFF SHORE PUSHING THE AIR INLAND OVER THE COLDER WATER.

BASED UPON PAST MODERATE LA NINAS…. THE DWEEBS BELIEVE OUR UPCOMING WINTER WILL BE AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD ONE FOR THE PAC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN WITH MAMMOTH ON THE BORDER OF THAT. OVERALL THE ODDS FAVOR NORMAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (80% TO 120%) OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA AND A MUCH DRIER THEN NORMAL WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LA NINA’S ARE NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING EARLY SEASON TEASER SHOWERY TYPE STORMS THAT DROP OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH PERIODS OF WARMER THEN NORMAL TEMPS WITHIN THE SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER TIME FRAME. THEN SOME REALLY COLD OUTBREAKS IN LATE NOVEMBER, DECEMBER AND JANUARY.AS OF NOTE: THERE IS A VERY STRONG WARM POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED WELL NORTH OF HAWAII ABOUT 43 NORTH-153 WEST. THE POOL AT THE MOMENT IS ABOUT 10F WARMER THEN NORMAL IN ITS CORE. IF THAT FEATURE HOLD TRUE INTO THE FALL, ITS POSITION MAY FAVOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE IN THE RIGHT POSITION FOR A MEAN TROF POSITION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W…..AND WITH TIME, FURTHER WEST.THE MJO SHOULD BE A MAJOR PLAYER LATER IN THE YEAR AND INTO THE NEXT INITIATING AMPLIFICATION THEN POSSIBLE UNDER UNDERCUTTING OF THE WESTERLIES THIS WINTER. NH BLOCKING WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PATTERNS WITH ATTENTION TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND STRONG BLOCKING OVER AK. LETS HOPE THAT THE HUDSON BAY FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE THIS WINTER!AGAIN….MODERATE/STRONG LA NINA FALLS ARE USUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY AN EARLY SNOW STORM (SINGULARITY TYPE), THAT CAN OCCUR ANYTIME FROM MID SEPTEMBER TO MID OCTOBER HERE IN MAMMOTH, FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COLD UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPING IN NOVEMBER.THE WINTER OF 1973/74 WAS A STRONG LA NINA THAT WAS AN EXCEPTION….WHICH STARTED IN THE FALL AND CONTINUED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE SPRING.

THIS MAY BE THE WINTER OF THE PINEAPPLE CONNECTION FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA…….IT IS OVER DUE!

Tahoe Weather Geek:
La Nina conditions strengthened during July as sea surface temperatures dropped further relative to the long-term average. Temperatures at the upper 300 meters of the Pacific, especially east of the International Dateline, were at least -1 degree Celsius below average. La Nina watchers also saw enhanced convection over Indonesia and low-level easterly trade winds and upper-level westerly winds over the western and central Pacific. All those signs point to a healthy La Nina condition for the coming winter. What’s it mean for Tahoe? Not clear yet. We probably won’t feel much effect from the condition until late in the year, around Christmas or New Years. And while La Nina generally means more precipitation in the Pacific NW and less in Southern California, Tahoe is caught in the middle, sort of the flip side of El Nino. But our own bias, based more on anecdote and memory than hard data, is that La Nina tends to bring cooler storms with more frequent but also more modest amounts of snow. We can still get a big fluffy pile of snow if the moisture content is there, but we also tend to get small storms every week or so that refresh the pack without burying us. Call us optimistic, but we are hoping for that kind of winter.

Topics: Introduction, Tahoe Snow Report | No Comments »

howard weamer: lou’s post

By ccrossen | August 16, 2010

Just wanted to clue “everyone” in on a cool video segment. Lou Dawson posted a link to a new short video by Jonathan Burhop on Howard Weamer, Yosemite’s Ostrander Hut hutkeeper. I have had some amazing times at Ostrander, as have so many others, with Howard, a true Yosemite classic and great guy. Ostrander and the surrounding area is a very special winter spot, and Howard’s a huge reason for that.


Howard has spent 35 years at Ostrander; he knows the place exceptionally well. He’s also an excellent photographer whose book, The Perfect Art: The Ostrander Hut and Ski Touring in Yosemite, is a must-have for those whom have spent time in the Sierra and surrounding areas.


Direct Vimeo link

Topics: Skiing | No Comments »

snow science conference: squaw

By ccrossen | August 16, 2010

Not a lot of weather happening these days - it’s pretty much perfect, clear, warm, slight breeze, day after day after day. It did rain a few times though, and that hailstorm last week was excellent. If you’re bored with the current weather and looking forward to winter, check out the ISSW snow science course happening at Squaw Creek Resort, October 17 - 22, 2010.


Seriously though, this is a fairly high-level conference, designed for snow scientists and avalanche practitioners rather than your average backcountry skier or recreationist. However, if you’re looking for some interesting topics and discussion, check it out.

Topics: Skiing | No Comments »

gear review: o’neill hyperfreak 2.0 short and sun protection

By ccrossen | August 3, 2010

Earlier this summer, I spent a month on the road, surfing a bunch of classic spots in Baja, C. Rica, and New Jersey. Great waves, good times, and lots of gear testing, day-in, day-out. Along the way, I had the opportunity to check out some of O’Neill’s current offerings, the Hyperfreak 2.0 boardshort, as well as some of their sun protection items.hyperfreak2.jpg

O’Neill’s tagline for the Hyperfreak is “Believe the Hype.” I must admit that I was a little skeptical when the boardshorts showed up at my door - they’re ultra-thin, superlight, super-stretchy, and so different from a normal pair of boardshorts. The Hyperfreak line boasts no seams at all, rather welded seams without any stitching. So while there are seams, they are super smooth and flat, glued/welded together, i.e. aren’t sewn. Given the thin material and welded seams, I was a little worried that they wouldn’t really stand-up to a month of 2-3 sessions each day, in some fairly rugged environments.

Well, these shorts put up with the abuse and pretty much changed my mind about what I now want in a boardshort, especially a travel short. This short is really the next generation and what most boardshorts will look like in the near future. To begin with, the fabric is smooth, stretchy, lightweight - there’s zero chafe, they dry very quickly, and they move with your body when you paddle, stand up, drive, air, cut, duck, fall. You really forget they’re there. These are boardshorts built for surfing rather than chilling, though they do that well too.

Despite the lightweight material, I was pretty surprised I didn’t come home with any holes. I think there was one pinprick. My main worry was that the shorts wouldn’t be able to handle the desert and jungle and rocky points. But I was wrong, and the shorts did great in regard to fabric wear. Granted, they’re thin, much thinner than your traditional nylon boardshort, and if pushed to the limit, they will tear more easily, but that would take a bit of abuse and recklessness.

These shorts pack much smaller and lighter than normal boardshorts and dry much faster as well. Excellent locking/lacing system and fly as well.All told, compared with normal (now old-school) boardshorts, the Hyperfreak 2.0’s are light years ahead. I don’t really think I can go back to the old after using these shorts for a month - there are just too many benefits.

Price: $69

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Another O’Neill item that I really enjoyed was the 24/7 s/s crew shirt, a heavy duty UV 30+ protection sun shirt designed for anywhere you’re exposed to the beating rays: surfing, boat, fishing, beach, jungle, desert, etc. I am a huge fan of the non-rash guard surf shirt, i.e. not tight, and while cotton can cut it, I typically like a nylon shirt better, for a variety of reasons. The 24/7 shirt is a little heavy weight, but it covers you up and can handle a lot of wear. This shirt was very basic in design, but excellent for those sessions during the heat of the day or when hanging on the beach for a few hours making sandcastles with my son. Added features include a front hem loop for attaching to boardshorts. The only complaint I had was due to the fact that the shirt neve had any time at all to dry and, as with most nylon clothing, it started to get a bit smelly after a few weeks.

O’Neill makes a wide collection of sun protection pieces for all sorts of climates, with hoodies, no sleeves, some mm, etc. All great and vital items for any trip.

Price:$42

Topics: Gear Reviews | No Comments »

caddis craziness

By ccrossen | July 29, 2010

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The fishing has been really fun, with the caddis coming out en force a couple of weeks ago. Flows have been all over the map, however, with the Upper Little Truckee falling off steeply and the big Truckee gaining flows with the Lake releases. We’ve had tons of success with the basic elk hair caddis lately.


I went out to the LT with my three year old son to go after some small rainbows - we experienced a feeding frenzy while we were there. The session didn’t last too long, and I think that my son enjoyed the rocks, pools, and bugs more than the fishing, but he brought in his first trout.


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For those looking for a little more in-depth information right now, be sure to check out Matt Koles site. Matt is a local guide, and his blog provides a wealth of information in a very condensed form, with some amazing photos of big fish from recent trips.

Topics: Introduction | No Comments »

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