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storm update

By ccrossen | December 4, 2014

The recent, very wet system is ending today, with light rain and snow showers throughout the day. Above 8,500′ the event was mostly snow, anywhere from 2-3 feet of cement, perfect base building consistency. It is skiing well and the instabilities we have seen the past few days are gradually strengthening. We clear out for the most part over the next week, though we may have some brush by systems this Friday and early next week. The storm we have been forecasting and watching via the models for the end of next week is looking good, as for now, it looks like a direct hit with much colder temps. We shall see, but if it transpires as the models are showing now, we will have an amazing snowpack above 7,000-7,500 feet and hopefully a start to a decent base below that. Models showing the storm beginning on Dec 11/12.

Topics: Tahoe Snow Report | No Comments »

incoming …

By ccrossen | December 1, 2014

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Looks like the storm we’ve been watching for the past week is about to deliver, up high anyway… 2-3 feet up on the Crest, Tues-Wds eve, snow level 6500-7000, so rain in town… will hopefully set the top half up nicely with a good solid base. Get up high for some great skiing the rest of the week - should be good to go in most open spots. This is mostly a Tahoe event, though down south will get 12-18 above 8000. Thrs-Sunday we have clouds but precip runs north and south of us… And the beginning of next week looks dry so far…

Topics: Skiing, Tahoe Snow Report | No Comments »

storm brewing

By ccrossen | November 24, 2014

Models are beginning to show a good size system hitting Tahoe beginning this coming Sat/Sun and last 2-3 days. Lots of variables and time until then, but initially, looking good. Just what we need to this late starting, though not unprecedented by any means, season. Stay tuned as the models will show more details and reveal better our chances during the next few days or so….

Topics: Skiing | No Comments »

snow coming: quick look

By ccrossen | October 27, 2014

After some dustings this October, including a couple of inches+ up high this past weekend, it looks like we have a Halloween system brewing… models are still vacillating, but we have precip and cold temps in store. Snow levels should be around 4,500-5,000. Initial model runs were forecasting for 10+ inches - now that doesn’t look likely. Rain/snow Friday night and snow Sat. morning as the front passes through. More details as they emerge. Definitely the potential for some poking around Sat/Sun. From NWS Reno discussion:


THEN FOR FRIDAY, THE GFS/EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH FOR LATE OCTOBER AND ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN THE DETAILS. THEY DO SHOW A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A SPLIT AND SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL AS BEING A LITTLE FASTER. IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY MAKING IT A POTENTIALLY WET, WINDY AND SNOWY HALLOWEEN FOR ANY GOBLINS OUT AND ABOUT.


WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, BUT DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS OR THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENTS WITH GUSTS PERHAPS TO 45 MPH. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TAP, BUT IT WILL HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO WORK WITH AS FORCING IS STRONG ALONG THE FRONT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW DOWN TO 5000 POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START AROUND 7000-7500 FEET AS ALMOST ALL THE PRECIP NOW APPEARS TO BE ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER AIR. THEY THEN LOOK TO FALL TO 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR SPILLOVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA, THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT ISN`T THE MOST FAVORABLE, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD IS LIKELY.


FOR THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY WILL BE COOL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL UNSTABLE AIR AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING. IF SKIES CLEAR, SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH 20S IN MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND TEENS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN, BUT ANY WARM-UP WILL BE SLOW UNDER NORTH FLOW ALOFT. WALLMANN

Topics: Introduction | No Comments »

thunder and el nino

By ccrossen | July 23, 2014

Some excellent reading over at The California Weather Blog, Weather West as we dry out from the last couple weeks of unusual rain and thunderstorms that have hit the Sierra.


The primary reason for all of this active weather throughout the West in recent days is the seasonal reversal of large-scale wind patterns associated with the North American Monsoon. This reversal occurs every summer, and is typically associated with occasional convective activity (often in the form of thunderstorms) over mountain and interior regions of the Southwest. Occasionally, this pattern can expand northward and westward to include California in the region of deep southeasterly flow around the characteristic mid-atmospheric high pressure area centered near the Four Corners region. Due to the stabilizing influence of the cool Pacific Ocean near the coast of California, convective activity associated with the monsoon is typically confined to mountain and desert regions, and thus tends to stay away from California’s major population centers. This gives rise to the perception that it never rains in California during the summer months (which is, indeed, a rather accurate characterization if one lives in the coastal metro regions or in the Central Valley).



As for El Nino, we are still on track for some type of event, with NOAA reporting they expect an 80% chance of one occurring this coming winter. However, with relatively modest El Nino’s, the affect really is uncertain, as only the truly most powerful ones create huge winter/precip for the Sierra.


From the California Weather Blog, Weather West, “The quick summary version: connections between California precipitation and El Niño are rather tenuous, except for very strong El Nino events, which are associated with increased cool-season precipitation. This is especially true for inland regions of Northern California, where the majority of California’s reservoirs and “snowpack stored water” capacity resides. While there were some early indications during spring 2013 that the upcoming likely El Niño event could be a very strong event, a top-tier event now appears less likely.”


More great reading this season’s El Nino and drought:
http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1594

Topics: Introduction | No Comments »

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